Can we predict CLI settlement within ±2°F by watching METAR readings during trading windows? Data: Sep 1, 2025 – Feb 18, 2026 (171 days, 7 stations).
| Station | Lows ±1°F | Lows ±2°F | Lows ±3°F | Lows Avg Diff | Highs ±1°F | Highs ±2°F | Highs ±3°F | Highs Avg Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMDW Chicago Midway |
54% (92/171) | 73% (124/171) | 80% (136/171) | 2.5°F | 81% (138/171) | 87% (148/171) | 93% (159/171) | 1.4°F |
| KNYC NYC Central Park |
60% (103/171) | 73% (124/171) | 82% (140/171) | 2.6°F | 80% (136/171) | 87% (149/171) | 90% (154/171) | 1.3°F |
| KMIA Miami |
61% (104/171) | 82% (141/171) | 89% (153/171) | 1.8°F | 88% (150/171) | 99% (169/171) | 100% (171/171) | 0.8°F |
| KLAX Los Angeles |
69% (118/171) | 84% (144/171) | 94% (160/171) | 1.3°F | 87% (149/171) | 95% (163/171) | 99% (169/171) | 0.8°F |
| KAUS Austin |
30% (51/171) | 51% (88/171) | 67% (115/171) | 3.6°F | 89% (152/171) | 97% (166/171) | 98% (167/171) | 1.0°F |
| KDEN Denver |
31% (53/171) | 45% (77/171) | 63% (107/171) | 4.0°F | 86% (147/171) | 95% (162/171) | 96% (165/171) | 1.0°F |
| KPHL Philadelphia |
58% (99/171) | 75% (129/171) | 81% (139/171) | 2.4°F | 84% (143/171) | 91% (155/171) | 91% (156/171) | 1.0°F |
| Date | Station | CLI Low | Best METAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | KDEN | 26°F | 51.0°F | 25.0°F |
| 2025-12-14 | KAUS | 34°F | 56.0°F | 22.0°F |
| 2025-12-28 | KMDW | 22°F | 43.0°F | 21.0°F |
| 2026-01-14 | KMDW | 19°F | 40.0°F | 21.0°F |
| 2025-11-10 | KNYC | 35°F | 55.0°F | 20.0°F |
| 2026-01-15 | KNYC | 24°F | 44.0°F | 20.0°F |
| 2026-02-07 | KNYC | 6°F | 26.0°F | 20.0°F |
| 2025-10-04 | KDEN | 43°F | 63.0°F | 20.0°F |
| 2025-11-11 | KDEN | 38°F | 57.0°F | 19.0°F |
| 2025-12-18 | KMDW | 18°F | 36.0°F | 18.0°F |
| Date | Station | CLI High | Best METAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | KMDW | 42°F | 23.0°F | 19.0°F |
| 2025-12-14 | KAUS | 65°F | 46.0°F | 19.0°F |
| 2026-02-07 | KPHL | 31°F | 15.0°F | 16.0°F |
| 2025-12-13 | KMDW | 27°F | 12.0°F | 15.0°F |
| 2026-02-07 | KNYC | 27°F | 12.0°F | 15.0°F |
| 2026-01-09 | KMDW | 60°F | 47.0°F | 13.0°F |
| 2026-01-19 | KMDW | 19°F | 7.0°F | 12.0°F |
| 2025-12-17 | KLAX | 74°F | 63.0°F | 11.0°F |
| 2026-01-24 | KAUS | 45°F | 34.0°F | 11.0°F |
| 2026-01-23 | KMDW | 8°F | -2.0°F | 10.0°F |