For each hour of the day, what’s the accuracy of “reading the thermometer” vs CLI settlement? Data: Sep 2025 – Feb 2026 (171 days, 7 stations). Shows cumulative running min/max METAR compared to final CLI value.
Each cell = % of nights where the running minimum METAR temp was within ±2°F of the final CLI low, cumulative up to that hour. The dashed line on bar charts marks the 80% target.
| Station | 9PM | 10PM | 11PM | 12AM | 1AM | 2AM | 3AM | 4AM | 5AM | 6AM | 7AM | 8AM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMDW Chicago | 17% | 21% | 23% | 30% | 35% | 45% | 58% | 73% | 79% | 82% | 83% | 84% |
| KNYC NYC | 20% | 23% | 30% | 36% | 47% | 56% | 67% | 73% | 80% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| KMIA Miami | 18% | 24% | 30% | 37% | 49% | 60% | 71% | 82% | 87% | 89% | 89% | 90% |
| KLAX Los Angeles | 23% | 25% | 31% | 37% | 47% | 61% | 74% | 84% | 89% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| KAUS Austin | 7% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 23% | 40% | 51% | 61% | 70% | 71% | 71% |
| KDEN Denver | 11% | 13% | 17% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 37% | 46% | 51% | 58% | 60% | 60% |
| KPHL Philadelphia | 15% | 18% | 25% | 29% | 40% | 54% | 64% | 76% | 80% | 81% | 81% | 82% |
Each cell = % of days where the running maximum METAR temp was within ±2°F of the final CLI high, cumulative up to that hour.
| Station | 10AM | 11AM | 12PM | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMDW Chicago | 22% | 38% | 57% | 80% | 84% | 85% | 87% | 88% | 89% |
| KNYC NYC | 13% | 30% | 54% | 75% | 85% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 89% |
| KMIA Miami | 29% | 56% | 79% | 92% | 97% | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| KLAX Los Angeles | 42% | 81% | 94% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| KAUS Austin | 2% | 6% | 18% | 43% | 84% | 97% | 97% | 98% | 98% |
| KDEN Denver | 11% | 27% | 53% | 80% | 91% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| KPHL Philadelphia | 12% | 28% | 53% | 76% | 89% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
How accuracy improves as the night progresses. Shows ±2°F accuracy at each hour. Dashed line = 80% target.
How accuracy improves as the afternoon progresses. Shows ±2°F accuracy at each hour. Dashed line = 80% target.
Based on when each station first crosses the 80% accuracy threshold at ±2°F. TRADE = historically ≥80% accurate. CAUTION = 60-79%. SKIP = <60%.
| Station | Buy After | Accuracy | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMDW Chicago | 6 AM | 82% | TRADE |
| KNYC NYC | 5 AM | 80% | TRADE |
| KMIA Miami | 4 AM | 82% | TRADE |
| KLAX Los Angeles | 4 AM | 84% | TRADE |
| KAUS Austin | 7 AM | 71% | CAUTION |
| KDEN Denver | 7 AM | 60% | CAUTION |
| KPHL Philadelphia | 5 AM | 80% | TRADE |
| Station | Buy After | Accuracy | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMDW Chicago | 2 PM | 84% | TRADE |
| KNYC NYC | 2 PM | 85% | TRADE |
| KMIA Miami | 1 PM | 92% | TRADE |
| KLAX Los Angeles | 11 AM | 81% | TRADE |
| KAUS Austin | 2 PM | 84% | TRADE |
| KDEN Denver | 2 PM | 91% | TRADE |
| KPHL Philadelphia | 2 PM | 89% | TRADE |